Cathleen and Susan share a look.
 ”A conclusion way too far, Kareem.”
  ”Yep, you’ve overbounded your steps.”

Kareem tosses in a couple of chips. “Huh? What did I skip over? Where?”

Cathleen sees his bet and raises. “When you said that the Psyche asteroid’s gold content would be similar to what we dig up on Earth, you skipped many orders of magnitude in applying the Cosmological Principle.”

“I didn’t realize I’d done that. What’s the Cosmological Principle?”

“There’s several ways to state it, but they boil down to, ‘We’re not special in the Universe.‘ We think that fundamental constants and physical laws determined here on Earth have the same values and work the same way everywhere. Astrophysics just wouldn’t work as well as it does if the electron charge or Newton’s Laws of Motion were different a million lightyears away from us.”

“Wait, what about that galaxy that’s going to collide with us even though everything’s supposed to be flying away?”

“Fair question. The un‑boiled Principle includes some qualification clauses, especially the one that says, ‘when averaged over a large enough volume.’ How big a volume depends on what you’re studying. For motions of galaxies and such you have to average over a couple hundred million lightyears. Physical constants measured locally seem to be good out to the edge of the Observable Universe. Elemental abundances are somewhere in‑between — the very oldest, farthest‑away galaxies have less of the heavy stuff than we do around here. <pulls her tablet from her purse> Which brings me to this chart I built for one of my classes.”

“You’re going to have to explain that.”

“Sure. Both graphs are about element abundance. We get the numbers from stellar and galactic spectra so we’re averaging the local Universe out to a few hundred thousand lightyears. Left‑to‑right we’ve got hydrogen, helium, lithium and so on out to uranium in the big graph, out to iron in the small one. Up‑and‑down we’ve got atom count for each element, divided by the number of iron atoms so iron scores at 1.0. The range is huge, 31 000 hydrogens per single iron atom, all the way down to 17 rhenium atoms per billion irons. I needed this logarithmic scale to make the points I wanted to make in class.”

Vinnie sweetens the pot. “You’ve got that nice zig‑zag going in the little graph, Cathleen, but things get weird around iron and the big graph has that near‑constant series starting around 60. Why the differences?”

<lays down Q‑J‑10‑9‑8, all hearts, pulls in the chips> “Perfect straight line, Vinnie. The different behaviors come from nuclear cookery at different stages of a star’s life. Most new‑born stars start by fusing hydrogen nuclei, protons, to produce helium nuclei, alpha particles. Those two swamp everything else. As the star evolves to higher temperatures, proton‑addition processes generate successively more massive nuclei. Carbon starts a new pattern, because alpha‑addition processes it initiates generate the sawtooth pattern you picked up on — an alpha has two protons so each alpha fusion contributes to the atomic number peak two units along the line.”

“What happens with iron?”

“What happens when you put a blow torch to a red‑hot metal ball?”

“The ball melts.”

“Why?”

“Cause the extra energy’s too much for what holds the ball together.”

“Well, there you go. The forces that hold an atomic nucleus together have their limits, too. Iron and its next‑but‑one neighbor nickel are right on the edge of stability for alpha reactions. The alpha process in the core of a normal star can’t make anything heavier.”

“So how do we get the heavy guys?”

“Novas, supernovas and beyond. Those events are so energetic and so chaotic there’s non‑zero probability for any kind of atom to form and evolve to something stable before it can break down. Massive atoms just have a lower probability so there’s less of them when things settle down. Gold, for instance, at only 330 atoms per billion atoms of iron. The explosions spray heavy atoms throughout their neighborhood.”

Kareem antes the next pot. “So you’re saying my mistake was to assume that asteroid Psyche’s composition would match whole‑Universe heavy‑element statistics?”

“Well, that was his first mistake, right, Susan?”

~~ Rich Olcott